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Zambia’s path to sustained economic growth will depend on balancing the opportunities of strong global copper demand with urgent investments in electricity supply, experts and business leaders have said.
They stressed that while the long-term copper outlook is positive, the country must address energy shortages and harness its resource wealth more effectively to achieve its ambitious growth targets.
Speaking to Zambian journalists on the sidelines of the Zambia Commodity Market Outlook Conference II at Mulungushi International Conference Centre on Friday, Emeritus Professor of Economic History and commodities specialist, Philippe Chalmin, said the long-term vision for Zambia remained positive given global copper demand.
“It is true that today copper prices are pretty high. They could be even higher, and I do think that they will get higher in the years to come. So the vision for Zambia is definitely positive,” Chalmin said.
However, he cautioned that commodity markets were inherently volatile.
“You have to take into account the fact that there might be geopolitical risks. If you join the mining industry, you have to be able to see the world 10 to 20 years ahead of you. It’s a very difficult exercise,” he added.
Chalmin forecast that while copper prices could ease in the short term, the long-term trajectory remained bullish.
He also noted that oil markets were likely to soften, with crude prices expected to fall below US$60 per barrel by 2026.
FNB Zambia Chief Executive Officer,Kapumpe Chola, echoed Chalmin’s outlook, stressing that Zambia’s growth story remained intact.
“As the professor has already mentioned, the copper outlook remains positive. Zambia has set a target of producing three million tonnes of copper. One can question whether it’s achievable, but what is important is the intent, and now we must all start working towards it,” Chola said.
He noted that FNB’s own research and economic reports point to a positive outlook, with the bank increasing its investment in Zambia.
“The outlook for Zambia remains positive, but it will be important that we do the work necessary as a country to harness the value of the resources that we have been endowed with,” Chola added.
Africa GreenCo Group Chief Executive Officer, Ana Hajduka, stressed that Zambia’s ability to meet its copper production targets would depend on ensuring sufficient electricity supply.
“We know, those of us who live here, that we experience hours of electricity shortages even today. Without sufficient power, it will be very difficult to underpin the GDP growth that is required,” Hajduka warned.
While GreenCo is not directly investing in transmission, Hajduka said the company’s role was to make generation projects bankable and bridge supply with demand to attract financing for grid expansion.
The three leaders agreed that Zambia’s long-term growth would hinge on combining strong global demand for copper with robust investments in energy, mining, and financial sectors, while avoiding the pitfalls of the “resource curse.”
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