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Fitch Solutions’ BMI has revised its 2026 tin price forecast upward to US$35,000 per tonne, from an earlier estimate of US$32,000, citing persistent supply constraints amid stable demand from the semiconductor sector.
The global tin market remains heavily influenced by developments in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, where production and shipments continue to be disrupted by delays in the approval of annual work permits.
Indonesia’s tightening of mining and export regulations has repeatedly interrupted global supply flows in recent years, according to Mining.com.
Supply uncertainties are also linked to Myanmar’s Wa State.
In July, the International Tin Association reported that shipments from the region were expected to resume as operators at the Man Maw tin mine — currently undergoing a controlled restart — had secured three-year mining permits.
However, with no further updates by late November, BMI analysts said they were maintaining a cautious “wait-and-see” stance, noting that reports of an imminent restart have circulated for months without material progress.
Myanmar is historically the world’s third-largest tin producer and holds an estimated 700,000 tonnes of reserves, equivalent to about 15 percent of global reserves, according to USGS data.
Only China and Indonesia hold larger reserves, at 800,000 and 720,000 tonnes respectively.
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