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Zambia’s economic performance in 2025 represents a clear shift from crisis containment to macroeconomic stabilisation, although the recovery remains incomplete and uneven.
The 2025 year can best be described as one of consolidation rather than transformation.
Economic growth improved, largely supported by mining, services, transport, ICT, and a rebound in agricultural activity following earlier climate shocks.
Stronger copper output and exports continued to anchor foreign exchange earnings, reinforcing Zambia’s resource-led growth model.
However, the concentration of growth in a few sectors highlights the persistent vulnerability of the economy to commodity price fluctuations.
Inflation showed signs of moderation during the year, supported by tighter monetary policy, a more stable Kwacha, and easing imported inflation.
Nevertheless, inflation remained above the Bank of Zambia’s target range, reflecting deep-seated structural cost pressures linked to energy constraints, food supply inefficiencies and high logistics costs.
This explains why many households have not felt immediate relief in the cost of living despite improved macro indicators.
Externally, Zambia recorded a stronger trade position and improved foreign exchange reserve accumulation. These developments enhanced external stability and strengthened the currency, reducing short-term balance-of-payments risks.
Yet the external sector remains highly sensitive to global copper demand, underscoring the urgency of export diversification and value addition.
On the fiscal front, progress under the IMF-supported programme and debt restructuring efforts helped restore fiscal credibility in 2025.
Exiting acute debt distress is a major milestone, but it does not imply fiscal comfort.
Debt sustainability remains fragile, and renewed non-concessional borrowing would quickly reverse recent gains.
In summary, the year 2025 has been marked with patterns of stabilisation though without full inclusion.
The challenge ahead is converting macroeconomic gains into jobs, lower living costs and broad-based growth through structural reforms, energy security and private-sector-led productivity.
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