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IMF cuts Zambia’s 2025 forecast to 5.2% but growth rate still exceeds 4.1% projected average for African economies

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Zambia’s 2025 economic growth projection downward, citing the country’s ongoing energy crisis as a major constraint on production and overall economic performance.

IMF Resident Representative, Eric Lautier, explained that Zambia’s growth was initially projected at 5.8 percent, but the persistent power shortages—disrupting industries, businesses and agriculture—led to a lower forecast of 5.2 percent.

He noted that the energy crisis has weakened output across key sectors, prompting the Fund to recalibrate its earlier expectations.

Read more: Zambia gains international support for economic reforms at IMF–World Bank meetings

Presenting the IMF’s Economic Outlook for African Countries in Lusaka, Lautier highlighted that the energy shortages remain one of the most pressing risks to Zambia’s short-term recovery.

Zambia is currently implementing a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme with the IMF aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, strengthening fiscal management and supporting economic reforms.

Through the programme, the IMF has been working with the government to rebuild debt sustainability, improve public financial oversight and attract investment to key sectors.

Lautier noted that Zambia has already achieved 94 percent completion of its external debt restructuring—a key milestone under the IMF-supported programme.

He said the progress is expected to ease the country’s debt burden and bolster long-term stability once energy challenges are addressed.

Despite the downward revision, Zambia’s projected growth still exceeds the 4.1 percent average expected for most African economies, underscoring the country’s potential once power shortages are resolved.

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