ZIPAR says 2026 a critical transition year for Zambia, as elections, end of 8th National Development Plan come to an end

The Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR) has described 2026 as a critical transition year for Zambia, driven by the convergence of the general elections and the conclusion of the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP).

ZIPAR Interim Executive Director, Zali Chikuba, said the period presented both significant risks and strategic opportunities for the country.

Speaking at a press briefing in Lusaka, Chikuba warned that election-related risks include increased public spending pressures and potential policy slippage.

Despite these challenges, he said the transition offered an opportunity to chart a new development trajectory.

“This period also provides a window to formulate a forward-looking Ninth National Development Plan (9NDP),” Chikuba said.

He emphasised that the 9NDP must be anchored on key national priorities.

“The next plan should be grounded in fiscal realism, climate resilience, productivity-driven growth and sustained investment in human capital, particularly in health and education,” he said.

Chikuba further stressed the importance of stability during the electoral period, noting that peace and policy consistency were essential to ensure a smooth transition from the 8NDP to the 9NDP.

He said the economic sacrifices made by Zambians in recent years were beginning to yield results.

“The difficult adjustments undertaken over the past few years are now starting to pay off,” Chikuba said.

According to him, Zambia’s economic performance in 2025 showed a cautiously optimistic outlook, supported by improved macroeconomic stability, strong performance in the mining and agricultural sectors, progress under IMF-supported reforms and recovery from the effects of drought.

Chikuba said sustaining these gains would be critical.

“If we consolidate these gains through consistency and strategic vision, we can secure a sustainable and prosperous future for Zambia,” he said.

On policy reforms, Chikuba acknowledged growing public fatigue, particularly following the removal of subsidies.

“We recognise that citizens are experiencing the short-term costs of reforms,” he said.

However, he said ZIPAR’s analysis indicated that the benefits of the reforms were increasingly reaching vulnerable groups.

“Our analysis shows that the benefits of these reforms are gradually being redistributed to the most vulnerable segments of society,” Chikuba said.

He called for improved public engagement, stressing the need for stronger communication from both government and policy institutions to clearly explain the trade-offs involved.

Chikuba added that reform implementation should remained guided by social outcomes.

“Reforms should continue until the marginal social costs are equal to the marginal social benefits,” he said.

He urged the government to maintain policy consistency, saying the current economic momentum was the result of difficult but necessary reforms.

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