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Standard Bank Group Chief Economist, Goolam Ballim, has projected that Sub-Saharan Africa could sustain annual GDP growth of around four percent over the next decade, but warned that commodity dependence and shifting global trade dynamics remained critical vulnerabilities for the continent.
Speaking at the Africa Unlocked Conference in Cape Town, Ballim said Africa had shown remarkable economic resilience over the past 25 years—even in the face of global financial crises, a slowdown in China, commodity price shocks, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The continent has managed to average near 4 percent GDP growth over the past two and a half decades—even through some of the most difficult global conditions,” he said.
He noted that the post-COVID recovery was already yielding upside surprises, with 2024 growth data pointing to a rebound of around 3.8 percent, slightly below the year’s early forecast of 4.2–4.3 percent.
However, Ballim cautioned that downside risks remained.
The presentation also highlighted Africa’s increasing integration into global trade and supply chains.
While two-thirds of capital inflows into Africa still originate from Western countries—especially the United States and the Eurozone—trade flows have shifted significantly over the past two decades.
“There’s been a monumental switch in trade relationships. While capital still flows from the West, Africa’s trade has increasingly shifted toward Eastern nations and intra-African corridors,” he observed.
Intra-African trade has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent of the continent’s global trade share over the last two decades, a trend seen as critical to building economic resilience and value chains within the continent.
Despite these positive indicators, Ballim warned that Africa remained highly exposed to commodity price volatility, with many economies relying heavily on the export of oil, minerals, and agricultural products.
“Africa’s vulnerability lies in its commodity dependency. When global prices are suppressed, so is Africa’s growth potential. The opposite is true in boom periods—but it’s not sustainable,” he said.
Ballim cited recent metal and precious mineral price increases of over 20 percent, noting they were helping to drive growth in key exporting countries.
However, he stressed the need for economic diversification, including investment in manufacturing and value-added industries.
He also addressed geopolitical fragmentation and its implications for Africa, urging policymakers to continue engaging constructively with global powers, particularly the United States.
“We must never take our economic relationship with the U.S. lightly. Africa needs a clear and ambitious economic diplomacy strategy toward Washington,” he said, adding that oil self-sufficiency in America has shifted its engagement strategy with Africa in recent years.
He argued that Sub-Saharan Africa could potentially double the growth rate of the rest of the world over the next decade, provided structural reforms, investment flows, and trade integration are accelerated.
“There are multiple areas where Africa can constructively respond to global shifts. The time is now to seize those opportunities and build an economy that is not only resilient—but transformative,” Ballim said.
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