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Uganda’s military is facing growing internal tensions following the arrest of at least a dozen senior generals and officers over the past 15 months, amid an intensifying debate over who will succeed President Yoweri Museveni after four decades in power.
The arrests, carried out under the leadership of army chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s 52-year-old son, have raised questions about possible divisions within the armed forces and the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), according to the BBC.
Gen Kainerugaba is widely viewed as a potential successor to his father, although his reported presidential ambitions appear to be encountering resistance within the ruling party.
Tensions escalated this week after the army chief threatened to dismiss and possibly arrest Vice-President Jessica Alupo, while suggesting that he should take over her position.
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The developments have fuelled speculation that military officers perceived to be opposed to Kainerugaba’s political ambitions are being targeted, although others view the arrests as part of an anti-corruption campaign aimed at holding senior commanders accountable.
The tensions have also exposed an apparent divide between the military, where Kainerugaba wields considerable influence, and the NRM, where his political ambitions remain a subject of debate.
A recent meeting of the ruling party’s top leadership reportedly ended without agreement on a proposal to position Kainerugaba as Museveni’s successor.
Five party sources who attended the closed-door meeting told AFP that a vote on the proposal was abandoned after several members expressed opposition.
However, Ugandan news website ChimpReports reported that most members who spoke supported the general’s potential presidency, although some questioned his readiness for civilian leadership.
In a statement on Thursday, NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong Awany confirmed that the party had met on November 10 to discuss political, social and economic issues.
He dismissed reports that the meeting had rejected a proposal to position Kainerugaba as the country’s next president, saying the party would communicate any decisions through the appropriate channels and at the right time.
Ugandan-born political scientist Gerald Bareebe of Canada’s York University said the arrests appeared connected to political manoeuvring surrounding Museveni’s succession, commonly referred to as the “Muhoozi Project”.
He said senior military officers perceived to be opposed to the project had been arrested, detained or charged with offences including corruption and treason.
Bareebe argued that allegations against some of the officers were widely viewed as politically motivated, reflecting divisions within the military over the succession question.
However, other security analysts have defended the arrests as part of efforts to investigate alleged corruption and criminality within the armed forces, while government spokesperson Allan Kasujja has dismissed claims of a succession-related fallout as unfounded.
Some of the detained officers have since been released, reportedly after securing Kainerugaba’s forgiveness.
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