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The Acton Institute for Policy Analysis Centre (AIPAC) has urged the government to reconsider its decision to lift the maize export ban, warning that Zambia could face shortages if weather forecasts of a possible drought in the 2026/2027 farming season prove accurate.
AIPAC Executive Director, Solomon Ngoma, said the policy shift may appear beneficial in the short term—particularly in boosting foreign exchange inflows and stimulating agricultural growth—but could expose the nation to food insecurity if weather patterns deteriorate.
Ngoma noted that farmers would indeed enjoy immediate benefits such as higher prices and increased demand from regional and international markets, which could help restore confidence in agriculture as a viable business.
However, he cautioned that climate indicators were already signalling the possibility of a drought.
“What may appear to be surplus maize today could, in the near future, become a critical lifeline for the nation if rainfall patterns fail,” he said in a statement issued in Lusaka on Tuesday.
He warned that exporting aggressively now could leave the country vulnerable tomorrow, stressing that the issue was not about whether maize exports were good or bad, but about timing, foresight and national preparedness.
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Ngoma added that Zambia must avoid repeating past mistakes where drought left households struggling and placed the nation at risk of hunger.
“Food security is not simply an economic issue—it is a national security issue. A country that cannot feed its people risks instability, hardship, and dependence on external aid,” he said.
He urged the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce and Trade to exercise caution and ensure that national food reserves remain adequate to withstand potential climate shocks.
Ngoma called for a “measured approach” that allowed farmers to benefit from export opportunities while safeguarding domestic supply.
The government had earlier lifted restrictions on the export of maize grain and maize products, including mealie meal.
Ministry of Agriculture spokesperson, Balewa Zyuulu, said the decision aimed to support farmers and improve market access by allowing producers and processors to trade competitively within and outside Zambia.
Zyuulu added that the move was expected to boost incomes, especially for small-scale farmers, and stimulate growth in agriculture and agro-processing.
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