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The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that a projected “super” El Niño could inflict economic losses of between US$10 billion and US$20 billion across Africa, threatening growth, food security and fiscal stability in some of the continent’s most vulnerable economies.
According to the bank, the extreme weather event could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) in the hardest-hit countries by an average of one to two percent, as prolonged droughts, floods and storms disrupt agriculture, energy production and critical infrastructure.
In a statement, as reported by the Access Bank group market commentary, AfDB Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, Anthony Nyong, said countries already exposed to climate-related shocks, including parts of the Sahel and Mozambique, were expected to bear the greatest impact.
He warned that severe food shortages could trigger mass migration, while maize prices could potentially double as competition for land and water intensifies.
Read more: Zambian govt rolls out El Niño plan to protect farmers, food supply
The bank estimates that African farmers could lose about US$327 million this year, while fisheries productivity may decline by between one and four percent because of changing climatic conditions.
To strengthen resilience, the AfDB plans to review its climate investment portfolio in September and support member countries in mobilising additional climate finance to prepare for the anticipated weather event.
The lender also warned that Africa’s adaptation financing requirements could rise to US$100 billion this year as governments seek to cushion economies and communities from worsening climate impacts.
The AfDB said the projected super El Niño posed a significant downside risk to Africa’s macroeconomic outlook, with slower economic growth and rising inflation expected to create stagflationary pressures across many frontier economies.
It noted that countries with strong macroeconomic policies, adequate foreign exchange reserves and International Monetary Fund-supported reform programmes would be better positioned to absorb the shock.
However, economies carrying high debt burdens, limited reserve buffers and heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture or hydropower generation could face renewed pressure on public finances, external balances and exchange rates if the weather event materialises.
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