Zambia faces risk of below-normal rainfall in Q1, 2027

Zambia faces an increased risk of below-normal rainfall during the first quarter of 2027, raising concerns over agricultural production and food security, according to the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF).

The January to March 2027 outlook shows that much of central and southern Southern African Development Community (SADC) region could experience below-normal rainfall, with Zambia, Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and parts of South Africa among the areas most at risk.

“The January to March (JFM) 2027 period is expected to have below-normal rainfall over most of the central and southern parts of the SADC region,” SARCOF said.

However, the forecast points to significant differences across Zambia, with northern parts of the country expected to receive relatively better rainfall.

“Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over northern parts of the region, including the DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and Seychelles,” the report stated.

For the October to December 2026 period, which marks the beginning of the main agricultural season, much of the SADC region is also expected to record below-normal rainfall.

Northern Zambia, however, is forecast to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while extreme northern parts could experience above-normal rainfall.

The outlook has been linked to an anticipated strong El Niño, which is associated with hotter and drier conditions in Southern Africa. Reduced rainfall combined with increased evaporation could put pressure on crop production during the October to May growing season.

Crops such as maize, soybeans and sunflower could be particularly affected if dry conditions persist during critical stages of production.

The temperature outlook also points to warmer-than-usual conditions across much of the region between October 2026 and January 2027.

SARCOF said temperatures were expected to be “mostly above the long-term averages over the whole of the SADC region,” although some central areas could experience cooler-than-normal conditions.

For Zambia, the differing rainfall projections highlight the importance of monitoring seasonal conditions across the country.

While northern areas could receive adequate rainfall, other parts of the country may experience reduced precipitation during the critical January to March period.

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