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Zambia risks suffering an even worse economic and humanitarian crisis than the devastating 2023/2024 El Niño if climate risks are ignored in next year’s national budget, the Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) has warned.
CTPD Land, Environment and Climate Change Researcher Solomon Mwampikita said the 2027 National Budget must be designed to strengthen the country’s resilience to climate shocks, warning that a forecast Super El Niño during the 2026/2027 season could trigger severe droughts, crop failures and energy shortages across Southern Africa.
“The economic fallout of climate-blind planning is catastrophic,” Mwampikita said in a statement issued on Thursday, warning that failure to integrate climate adaptation into public spending would threaten national food security, increase public debt and disrupt essential services such as education and healthcare.
He said the warning comes as the Ministry of Finance and National Planning formulates the 2027 National Budget and the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Budget Plan, presenting what he described as a critical opportunity to strengthen Zambia’s preparedness for future climate shocks.
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Mwampikita urged the ministry to make climate responsiveness a compulsory requirement for all budget submissions from ministries, provinces and spending agencies, particularly those responsible for agriculture, water development and energy.
He also called for increased funding towards early-maturing seed distribution, solar-powered irrigation systems and water-harvesting infrastructure, saying proactive investment in climate adaptation would cost far less than responding to disasters after they occur.
According to CTPD, the Government should also establish ring-fenced contingency reserves that can be deployed before climate emergencies escalate, shifting public finances from disaster response to disaster preparedness.
Mwampikita said the 2027 National Budget should be treated as a strategic instrument for protecting Zambia’s economy from climate-induced shocks rather than merely an annual spending plan.
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