By 
The Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) has cautioned government against using the 2027 National Budget as a “reward budget”, warning that increased politically visible spending could further strain Zambia’s limited fiscal space.
In a statement issued on Thursday, CTPD Head of Research, Ibrahim Kamara, said the country’s main challenge was not a shortage of policies or programmes, but limited capacity to finance new commitments sustainably.
Kamara said with debt service estimated to absorb close to 40 percent of government revenue, every new spending commitment carried a significant opportunity cost.
Read more: 20% markup in State House 2026 budget troubles policy group
“The relevant question is no longer simply, ‘How much will Government spend?’ It is: ‘What will each additional Kwacha change and what fiscal risk does it create?’” he said.
Kamara said the 2027 Budget should instead prioritise revenue quality and expenditure efficiency, including closing excise-duty loopholes, strengthening mineral revenue assurance and improving value for money in the agriculture sector.
He also called for measures to widen the tax base without imposing excessive taxes on low-income digital users.
Kamara said government should publish a fiscal-space annex outlining debt-service obligations, arrears, contingent liabilities and the revenue genuinely available for development.
He said the 2027 Budget should be structured as a reform budget that protected fiscal space, improved revenue collection and expenditure execution, and redirected scarce resources towards productivity and household welfare.
According to Kamara, government’s renewed political mandate provides an opportunity to implement reforms that may be difficult during an election cycle.
“Re-election gives government political capital. It should spend that capital on reforms that are difficult precisely because elections are over,” he said.
He called for stronger action against leakages, inefficient expenditure and weak public-investment discipline, while ensuring that increased mineral revenues do not create dependence on recurrent spending.
Kamara said improvements in inflation, foreign reserves and copper production should not be treated as development outcomes on their own.
He said their real value would be measured by whether they eventually translated into cheaper credit, reliable electricity, productive employment, stronger public services and more resilient households.
“The 2027 Budget should therefore be assessed on whether it marks Zambia’s transition from stabilising the economy to restructuring it for sustained growth,” Kamara said.
WARNING! All rights reserved. This material, and other digital content on this website, may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express permission from ZAMBIA MONITOR.
Comments