COMESA warns of trade turmoil as U.S. tariffs threaten eight member states including Zambia

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat has raised the alarm over serious trade disruptions set to affect eight of its Member States in 2025 due to newly imposed reciprocal tariffs by the United States government.

In a policy brief released by its Division of Trade and Customs, COMESA projects significant reductions in trade volumes for countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (11 percent), Libya (31 percent), Madagascar (47 percent), Malawi (17 percent), Mauritius (40 percent), Tunisia (28 percent), Zambia (17 percent), and Zimbabwe (18 percent).

Though the U.S. is not a major trading partner for COMESA—accounting for only three percent to five percent of total exports and imports—the Secretariat warns that the new tariffs would trigger adverse supply and demand shocks.

These include inflated prices for COMESA’s key exports, such as Kenyan textiles and Zambian copper, alongside costlier U.S. capital goods, undermining competitiveness and slowing industrial growth.

Dr. Christopher Onyango, COMESA’s Director of Trade and Customs, said the measures signal a sharp break from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a U.S. initiative launched in 2000 to grant African nations preferential market access.

“These new tariffs contradict AGOA’s spirit and intent,” he stated.

The policy brief forecasts steep production declines and potential job losses across the region, particularly in export-reliant economies.

The ripple effects could deepen if key global partners such as China and the European Union respond with retaliatory measures—threatening COMESA’s broader trade portfolio, which heavily depends on extra-regional markets.

To mitigate the looming threat, COMESA is advocating for a “variable cooperative game strategy.”

This include negotiating fresh trade deals with the EU, China, India, and other emerging economies, while urging the African Union Commission to engage Washington in discussions on tariff reform and the preservation of a rules-based trading system.

The Secretariat further emphasized the need to boost intra-African trade through regional integration, investment in infrastructure, and the development of regional value chains to reduce external dependencies.

“Building economic resilience and unity across Africa is essential,” COMESA said, reaffirming its commitment to safeguarding member states and fostering long-term industrial development.

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