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Economist and researcher, Dr. Kelvin Kamayoyo, has urged African countries, including Zambia, to urgently build economic safety nets to cushion against the potential fallout from global trade wars, particularly those reignited by the United States.
Speaking in an interview with Zambia Monitor in Lusaka on Thursday, Kamayoyo cautioned that trade wars, like military conflicts, can trigger unexpected price escalations that disrupt economic structures—especially in smaller and vulnerable economies across Africa.
“Tariffs have the potential to induce inflationary pressure, disrupt commodity supply chains, hinder industrialisation, and ultimately damage the affected economies,” he said.
Kamayoyo noted that the current wave of trade wars, particularly involving “reciprocal tariffs” imposed by the Trump Administration, were challenging long-standing theories of international economics.
“These developments are calling into question fundamental concepts such as comparative advantage, opportunity cost, labour mobility, production frontiers, liberalisation, multilateralism, and competitiveness,” he said.
While reciprocal tariffs may initially appear to favour industrialised economies, Kamayoyo argued their long-term benefits remain uncertain given globalisation, technological advancement, and rising population trends.
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He suggested that a path to resolving trade wars lies in the approach taken by co-existing market duopolies like Coca-Cola and Pepsi. “The two largest economies—China and the US—must learn how to co-exist, as duopoly market players do globally,” Kamayoyo advised.
He called on African countries to urgently convene and conduct an impact assessment of current trade tensions and explore potential opportunities, while strategically repositioning for sustainable development.
Kamayoyo further referenced history, noting that the US had previously resisted international efforts to regulate restrictive business practices during the drafting of the 1947 Havana Charter—an initiative aimed at promoting fair competition.
He concluded by describing trade wars as economic self-defense mechanisms, often reflective of nations attempting to move toward autarky or a “bully monopoly” status.
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