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A leading copper bull and Head of Metals and Mining Research at Mercuria Energy Trading, Nick Snowdon, has raised the alarm over impending copper shortages — a development with potential implications for Zambia’s main foreign exchange earner.
In a statement issued on Wednesday, Snowdon cautioned that the approaching supply crunch could be the most severe since the mid-2000s.
This warning came as copper prices recorded modest gains on the London Metal Exchange, climbing 0.5 percent to US$9,570.50 per metric tonne.
The uptick was largely driven by a weaker US dollar and fresh stimulus measures from China, the world’s top consumer of the metal.
However, broader gains were restrained by persistent concerns over global growth and the impact of trade tariffs.
Snowdon projects a significant market imbalance in 2025, forecasting a 700,000-tonne deficit in copper concentrate and a 300,000-tonne shortfall in refined copper — a dual deficit he described as “extremely rare.”
A former analyst at Goldman Sachs, Snowdon anticipates copper prices to average US$15,000 per tonne this year, substantially higher than current market levels.
While copper prices rallied in early 2025, they experienced a dip in April amid fears over new tariffs and a slowing global economy.
Nonetheless, Chinese demand has remained robust, rising six percent year-to-date, buoyed by the expanding new energy sector.
Imports into China are expected to hold steady at around 300,000 tonnes per month, although growth could moderate to one percent later this year.
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