Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth projected to strengthen, according to World Bank

Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) economic growth is projected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2025 and further to an average of 4.2 percent in 2026–2027, provided global conditions remain stable, inflation moderates as expected, and regional conflicts ease.

This is according to the World Bank Group’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, released this month.

The report highlights that, amid a slowdown in growth across emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), SSA stands out as one of only two global regions where economic performance is expected to improve over the forecast period.

However, the projected growth remains below the region’s long-term average of 2000–2019 and is insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty.

The World Bank also noted that growth forecasts for the region have been revised downward by 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.2 percentage points for 2026.

These revisions reflect a weakening global economic outlook, heightened by rising trade barriers, growing uncertainty in trade policy, and declining investor confidence.

“Although the direct impact of escalating trade tensions and weaker global investor sentiment is expected to be moderate, the region’s outlook remains vulnerable to global spillovers, particularly through reduced demand for commodities,” the report stated.

The projections assume current tariff structures will remain unchanged throughout the forecast horizon, with a gradual easing of monetary policy rates across the region.

This monetary shift is expected to support both private consumption and investment.

Nonetheless, elevated public debt levels and high borrowing costs will necessitate continued fiscal consolidation efforts, which may limit domestic demand.

“Fiscal balances are expected to improve, with the average primary fiscal deficit projected to reach balance within the forecast horizon. This reflects fiscal discipline in 2024 and narrowing deficits in non-resource-rich economies,” the report noted.

Still, subdued global export demand is expected to dampen revenue for commodity-exporting nations, exerting further pressure on public finances.

Moreover, interest rate burdens across the region are projected to rise in 2025, potentially offsetting the gains made in fiscal consolidation.

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