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Public affairs analyst, Kelvin Chisanga, has urged the Zambian government to temporarily suspend selected fuel-related taxes and release strategic fuel reserves in response to rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which he warns could lead to severe fuel price shocks.
In a statement issued in Lusaka on Monday, Chisanga said the escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt global oil markets—putting pressure on Zambia’s economy and household welfare through higher fuel, plastic, and fertilizer prices.
“As the war between Israel and Iran intensifies, Zambia—like many other countries—faces exposure to external fuel price shocks that could destabilize the economy and worsen the cost of living,” he said.
He warned that likely increases in crude oil and refined petroleum product prices would inevitably raise domestic fuel costs, with knock-on effects across key sectors such as transport, agriculture, manufacturing, and food distribution.
“In this context, Zambia faces a complex policy dilemma, as the urgent need to maintain price stability for consumers will be critical while also safeguarding fiscal discipline under ongoing economic recovery and debt restructuring programmes,” Chisanga stated.
He acknowledged that fuel subsidies or price interventions might offer temporary relief but cautioned against blanket approaches that could expand the fiscal deficit, undermine the country’s IMF-supported reform programme, and dent investor confidence.
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“Full pass-through of global prices without any cushioning risks stoking inflation, reducing purchasing power, and igniting social discontent—especially among vulnerable groups,” he added.
Chisanga proposed a “balanced and smart” response that includes time-bound, targeted relief for the most impacted sectors—such as agriculture, public transport, and food distribution.
He further called on the government to ramp up investment in local energy alternatives, including biofuels and ethanol blending, and to enhance social protection mechanisms to cushion the impact on low-income households.
“The current situation is a test of our economic resilience and policy discipline. Zambia must respond not with panic or populism, but with strategic foresight, economic realism, and a strong commitment to protecting national stability and long-term growth,” Chisanga said.
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