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The Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) has raised the alarm over potential economic fallout for Zambia stemming from the intensifying trade war between the United States and China.
With both global powers locked in a prolonged tariff standoff—each imposing levies exceeding 100 percent on a range of imports—CTPD says the escalating tensions could slow China’s economic growth and in turn threaten Zambia’s key exports.
In a statement issued Thursday, CTPD Trade and Investment Researcher, Barnabas Mwale, warned that ripple effects from the trade war could deal a heavy blow to Zambia’s copper-dependent economy.
“A slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and exports could reduce demand for raw materials like copper, leading to lower prices and diminished revenue for Zambia’s mining sector,” Mwale said.
Read more: African countries largely insulated from direct impact of US tariffs – Fitch Ratings
China is Zambia’s second-largest trading partner after Switzerland. In 2024, Zambia exported approximately US$2.4 billion worth of goods to China—about 21 percent of its total exports—mainly consisting of mineral products such as copper, sulphur, and earth stones.
China’s major exports to the US—electric batteries, auto components, and electronics—also rely heavily on copper and related materials, further linking Zambia’s prospects to China’s manufacturing strength.
Mwale noted that Zambia’s reliance on unprocessed mineral exports—over 70 percent of total exports—leaves the economy vulnerable to external shocks.
To mitigate the risks, CTPD is urging the Zambian government to accelerate diversification efforts, particularly through value addition in both mining and agriculture.
Mwale also emphasized the need to support businesses and farmers seeking opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which could help reduce dependence on any single export market.
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