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The Zambian kwacha posted marginal gains against the United States dollar, supported by a recovery in global copper prices, although analysts warn that external risks continue to weigh on the currency.
According to market commentary from Access Bank Group, the Kwacha strengthened slightly to 19.2900 per dollar, trading near its 50-day moving average of 19.2497.
The bank said the modest appreciation followed an improvement in copper prices, offering some relief to the local currency after recent pressure from global market volatility.
However, analysts cautioned that copper prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term, leaving the kwacha exposed to renewed weakness if the commodity declines.
Read more: Kwacha holds firm amid easing volatility, but pressures linger
Copper is Zambia’s main export and a key source of foreign exchange inflows, making the currency highly sensitive to movements in global metal prices.
Access Bank noted that while the correlation between the dollar-kwacha exchange rate and benchmark copper prices has weakened in recent sessions, broader trends in the commodity are still expected to influence the currency over time.
In global markets, copper prices have been supported by renewed buying from China and rising expectations of possible tariffs by the United States on refined copper, with some analysts forecasting fresh record highs.
Chinese demand has rebounded as buyers step in on price dips and rebuild inventories, although underlying consumption remains uneven due to weakness in property and manufacturing sectors.
“At the same time, a premium on US Comex prices is incentivising shipments to the US ahead of a potential tariff decision, adding to global supply tightness and intensifying competition for material, particularly for energy infrastructure and AI-related demand,” Access Bank said.
While some analysts warn that elevated prices and geopolitical tensions—including the Iran conflict—could weigh on demand and lead to modest surpluses later, the near-term outlook for copper remains broadly bullish.
The outlook is underpinned by geopolitical dynamics, strategic stockpiling and structural demand linked to clean energy expansion and grid investment—factors expected to continue shaping the direction of the kwacha in the months ahead.
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