Zambia’s inflation rate slows to 15.3% in May 2025 as trade surplus improves slightly

Zambia’s annual inflation rate for May 2025 eased to 15.3 percent, down from 16.5 percent recorded in April, according to data released by the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats).

The drop signals a slowdown in the rate at which prices for goods and services are increasing across the country.

“This means that on average, prices of goods and services increased by 15.3 percent between May 2024 and May 2025,” said Chola Nakazwe Daka
Chief Statistician at ZamStats at a media briefing in Lusaka on Thursday.

Read more: Inflation climbs 15.7%, as Zambia suffers K1.3 billion trade deficit

Making a presentation on behalf of Acting Statistician General Sheila Mudenda, Daka stated that: “This development was mainly attributed to price movements in both food and non-food items.”

Food inflation, which has been a key driver of the overall rate, declined to 17.9 percent in May 2025 from 18.7 percent in April.

The slowdown was largely influenced by price reductions or stabilisations in key food items such as cereals (breakfast and roller mealie meal, maize grain), various types of milk, vegetables (lumanda, okra, tomatoes, impwa, and Irish potatoes), fruits (oranges, lemons, pineapples, avocados), and sweet potatoes.

Daka stated that non-food inflation also posted a notable drop, falling to 11.6 percent in May 2025 from 13.4 percent the previous month.

This was attributed to changes in the cost of motor vehicles (including models like the Toyota Hilux, Toyota Corolla, and Nissan Almera), passenger air transport, fuel (petrol and diesel), and hammer milling charges.

Among provincial contributions to the national inflation rate, Lusaka led with 4.5 percentage points, followed by Copperbelt with 3.4 percentage points.

Central and Southern Provinces contributed 1.9 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, while North-Western Province had the lowest contribution at 0.6 percentage points.

In external trade, she said that Zambia recorded a total trade value of K214.7 billion for the period January to April 2025, reflecting a 31.4 percent increase compared to K163.4 billion during the same period in 2024.

Daka said that exports accounted for K106.9 billion, with road transport dominating the sector, contributing K102.2 billion, or 95.6 percent of the total.

She stated that air and rail transport contributed K2.8 billion (2.6 percent) and K0.6 billion (0.5 percent), respectively.

Daka stated that export volumes during the same period stood at 2,472.9 thousand metric tonnes (Mt), with road transport accounting for 2,049.6 thousand Mt (82.9 percent).

She said rail and air transport contributed 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.

On the import side, Daka indicated that Zambia recorded K107.8 billion in total imports between January and April 2025. Road transport carried the highest value of imports at K56.0 billion (52.0 percent), followed by air (K5.9 billion, 5.5 percent) and rail (K0.6 billion, 0.5 percent).

She said other transport modes accounted for K45.3 billion (42.0 percent).

Daka stated that the total import volumes reached 3,158.4 thousand Mt, of which road accounted for 50.1 percent, rail 1.6 percent, and air 0.1 percent.

Other modes made up 48.2 percent of the import volume.

Zambia recorded a trade surplus of K0.49 billion in April 2025, slightly up from K0.47 billion in March.

However, export earnings fell by 6.4 percent, from K28.5 billion in March to K26.7 billion in April, mainly due to a decline in the export of intermediate goods (6.1 percent), raw materials (10.5 percent), consumer goods (3.3 percent), and capital goods (10.4 percent).

Meanwhile, imports also declined by 6.6 percent, from K28.1 billion in March to K26.2 billion in April, driven by reduced spending on capital goods (down 20.0 percent), intermediate goods (10.1 percent), and consumer goods (3.3 percent).

She indicated that the slowdown in inflation, coupled with a moderate trade surplus, offers some room for cautious optimism in Zambia’s economic outlook.

However, the persistence of double-digit inflation highlights the need for continued policy attention, especially in stabilising food and transport costs.

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