Why UPND may lose 2026 re-election bid —Mubanga

Dr. Kafula Mubanga of the Development People’s Party (DPP) has warned that the ruling United Party for National Development faced an increasingly narrow path to securing a second term in office, saying the political environment was shifting against the incumbents despite what he described as the “atmospheric noise of incumbency.”

Mubanga said Zambia’s political landscape was undergoing a significant transformation that could weaken the ruling party’s chances in the 2026 general election.

In a statement issued in Lusaka on Wednesday, he argued that the soaring cost of living and unfulfilled sectoral promises had turned the 2026 polls into a referendum on tangible results rather than campaign intentions.

“The government has lost the moral and political capital required to make a persuasive case for a second mandate,” he argued.

Mubanga said the 14 Independent-held constituencies were emerging as latent opposition strongholds, adding that cooperation between independent MPs and the broader opposition could shift the electoral map.

He further claimed that despite internal disagreements, opposition structures at branch and ward levels remained intact and mobilization-ready.

“The 2026 ballot will merely formalize a departure that has already occurred in the hearts of the people,” Mubanga said.

He argued that traditional opposition strongholds—particularly the 60 constituencies held by the Patriotic Front—represented a concentrated voting bloc of more than 5.6 million Zambians, based on the 2022 Census.

Mubanga argued that grassroots structures within the opposition had “hardened under pressure” and remained functional despite narratives suggesting they were collapsing.

“The demographic fortress of the opposition remains impenetrable. The UPND’s ‘change’ dividend has eroded, weakening its base,” he said.

He added that the ruling party’s 2021 victory had been anchored on promises of rapid economic relief, which many citizens felt had not materialized.

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