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The global copper market is bracing for a crucial decision by United States President, Donald Trump, on whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports, a move that analysts say could significantly alter global trade flows, inventory levels and price movements.
Market participants are closely monitoring a review by the US Commerce Department expected at the end of June, with the outcome likely to influence the direction of copper markets in the months ahead.
Three possible scenarios are currently under consideration, according to a market commentary by the Access Bank group Analysts.
“The first is the introduction of a 15 percent tariff on refined copper imports beginning in 2027,” they stated.
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Analysts believed such a move would encourage more copper shipments into the United States, tighten supply elsewhere and support higher prices on the Commodity Exchange (Comex).
A second possibility was that the US administration abandons the tariff proposal altogether.
Such a decision could trigger a release of stockpiled inventories accumulated in anticipation of trade restrictions, potentially putting downward pressure on global copper prices.
The third scenario involves a delay in reaching a final decision, prolonging uncertainty in the market and prompting traders and consumers to continue building inventories as a precautionary measure.
Proponents of the tariff argue that the measure would enhance US supply security for copper, a metal increasingly regarded as strategic due to its critical role in modern industry and the energy transition.
However, critics caution that import duties would increase costs for manufacturers that rely on copper as a key raw material, potentially weakening the competitiveness of American industries.
The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is expected to contribute to short-term volatility in copper markets, with investors closely watching developments from Washington.
Despite the near-term risks, analysts remain optimistic about copper’s long-term prospects, citing strong demand fundamentals driven by global investment in electricity networks, renewable energy systems and electrification technologies.
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