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Southern Africa recorded an estimated US$18.9 billion in unrealised export potential to the rest of the African continent in 2024, according to the latest trade data highlighting the region’s underexploited capacity for intra-African trade growth.
Of this figure, 58 percent—or approximately US$11.03 billion—is concentrated in just eight product categories, underscoring the need for targeted industrial policies and investment in regional value chains.
The sectors with the largest gaps include mineral resources (US$4 billion), motor vehicle parts (US$1.8 billion), machinery and electricity (US$1.5 billion), and ferrous metals (US$1.2 billion). These four product groups alone account for nearly 60 percent of the region’s unrealised trade capacity, according to the data.
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The total export potential for the eight identified product categories reached US$24 billion in 2024, representing 56 percent of Southern Africa’s total estimated export potential for that year.
The report highlights structural trade opportunities not only in industrial goods but also in beauty products (US$0.7 billion in unrealised potential), chemicals (US$0.8 billion), processed foods (US$0.63 billion), and plastics and rubber (US$0.4 billion).
These sectors reflect clear gaps between regional supply and demand, which could be addressed through improved trade facilitation, regional logistics integration, and access to economies of scale.
South Africa remains the dominant force in Southern Africa’s trade landscape, accounting for the bulk of both realised and unrealised export potential.
With its diversified manufacturing base, developed logistics infrastructure, and deep regional value chain linkages, South Africa is strategically positioned to drive growth in intra-African exports.
However, the report stresses that this potential can only be unlocked by increasing cross-border investments, fostering industrial partnerships, and enhancing market access for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Neighbouring countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique are noted for their role as essential suppliers of raw materials and intermediate goods that feed into South Africa’s export-oriented industrial processes. This cross-border industrial interdependence points to the growing importance of regional value chain integration.
The report further notes that while intra-SADC demand remains the backbone of Southern Africa’s trade, there are growing opportunities in East, West, and Central Africa, particularly in apparel, seafood, processed foods, and personal care products.
These regions offer untapped consumer markets that Southern African exporters can tap into through diversification and enhanced regional cooperation.
It stated that in unlocking the region’s unrealised export potential will require a combination of infrastructure investments, trade policy coordination, and SME empowerment, all aligned with the broader goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
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