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Total production for the 2025/2026 season is estimated at 4.94 million metric tonnes of maize, 71,938 mt of paddy rice, and 81,822 MT of wheat, authorities have revealed.
The country is expected to produce about 37,652 MT of sorghum and millet, 175,474 MT of sweet and Irish potatoes, and 824,957 MT of cassava flour, according to the latest Crop Forecast Survey released by the Zambia Statistical Agency (ZAMSTAT).
This is contained in the National Food Balance for Zambia for the 2026/2027 agricultural marketing season, based on the 2025/2026 Ministry of Agriculture and ZAMSTATS Crop Forecasting Survey, presented by ZAMSTAT Statistician General Shiela Mudenda.
The country starts the season with 1.77 million MT of maize in opening stocks as of May 1, 2026, along with smaller stocks of rice, wheat, sorghum and millet and this brings total availability to 7.8 million MT in maize equivalent.
Mudenda stated that the 7.8million MT available stock was against total requirements of 6.3 million MT.
“This brings total availability to 7.8 million MT in maize equivalent, against total requirements of 6.3 million MT. The balance leaves a surplus of 1.48 million MT in maize equivalent,” she said.
Mudenda stated that the surplus was driven mainly by maize, which shows a surplus of 2.49 million MT after meeting human consumption, strategic reserves, stockfeed, breweries, seed and losses.
She said human consumption alone was projected at 2.09 million MT of maize for Zambia’s population of 23.36 million people.
“Human consumption alone is projected at 2.09 million MT of maize for Zambia’s population of 23.36 million people,” according to the balance.
But not all crops are in surplus. Rice has a deficit of 57,354 MT, wheat a deficit of 358,318 MT, and cassava flour a deficit of 644,954 MT.
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The report noted the rice deficit was based on a three-year rolling average of known imports, while the cassava deficit may partly reflect tubers still in the ground that may not be harvested.
Mudenda said to balance this, Zambia was expected to export 2.49 million MT of maize commercially, while importing 57,354 MT of rice and 358,318 MT of wheat.
“No food aid imports are projected for the season. Strategic Reserve Stocks held by the Food Reserve Agency are set at 1 million MT of maize, enough to cover more than five months of national consumption,” she said.
Mudenda announced that post-harvest losses were estimated at 5 percent for grains, sweet potatoes and cassava, in line with SADC averages and structural cross-border trade, mostly to the DRC and Malawi, was projected at 150,000 MT.
She said the balance assumed human staple food consumption at 70% of a 2,100 kcal per person per day diet, based on ZAMSTATS census projections.
“While the overall picture shows food security for staple cereals, the deficits in rice, wheat and cassava flour mean Zambia will remain dependent on imports for those commodities during the 2026/2027 season,” Mudenda concluded.
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