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Meteorological organization warns of high probability of El Niño strengthening through early 2027

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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that climate projections indicate a high chance of El Niño strengthening in the last half of 2026 and possible extension into early 2027.

WMO Director Dr. Agnes Kijazi emphasized the need of strengthening regional coordination, expanding climate financing for adaptation, modernizing observational infrastructure via SOFF, and advancing end-to-end early warning systems.

Speaking at the 21st Africa Climate Forum in Lusaka on Monday, Kijazi noted that climate services moved beyond providing information to enable action that could be achieved through involvement of all stakeholders in a co-production, hence the importance of this forum.

She noted that the meeting also aimed to advance the formal establishment of Continental User Working Groups to ensure synergy between the African Union Commission, RCCs, Regional Economic Communities, sectoral institutions, and user communities.

“Climate projections indicate a high chance of El Niño strengthening in the last half of this year and possibility of its extension to early 2027 with a probability of above 80 percent,” Kijazi stated.

She said the forum’s objective aligned well with WMO strategic priorities on Impact Based and Action Based forecasting, moving climate services beyond information to enable action.

Kijazi added that participants would need to review performance of the past rainfall season, present the continental outlook, and translate it into sector-specific advisories to support preparedness and response.

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“It’s my hope that this forum will create a common understanding of climate drivers and anticipated impacts,” she said.

Kijazi commended ACMAD for its leadership in delivering high-quality weather and climate information and for supporting National Frameworks for Climate Services across Africa.

She further recognized other Regional Climate Centres that conduct Regional Climate Outlook Forums consistently, contributing to disaster risk reduction and socio-economic development.

“Furthermore, this Forum is expected to facilitate the translation of climate outlooks into practical guidance for key sectors, while strengthening collaboration, knowledge exchange, and trust across the continent,” Kijazi said.

The forum brings together WMO Regional Climate Centres and key stakeholders to assess projected climate impacts, harmonize regional outlooks, and co-develop actionable climate services for vulnerable communities.

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